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Definitive Analysis

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Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings Co., Ltd. (9099.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,437.42 - $5,238.53$3,477.16
Multi-Stage$10,727.70 - $11,839.39$11,272.55
Blended Fair Value$7,374.86
Current Price$5,730.00
Upside28.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.40%0.00%33.5330.4524.3324.4224.6422.4022.4924.8216.330.00
YoY Growth--10.12%25.14%-0.36%-0.89%10.02%-0.39%-9.40%52.02%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.59%2.41%2.30%1.45%1.56%1.63%1.69%1.87%1.53%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,084.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)209.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,875.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)616.80385.50231.30
Cash Retained (M)2,875.002,875.002,875.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-616.80-385.50-231.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,258.202,489.502,643.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.7322.7322.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share99.37109.55116.33
LTM Dividend per Share9.209.209.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share99.37109.55116.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend108.57118.74125.53
WACC / Discount Rate3.95%3.95%3.95%
Growth Rate-0.48%0.52%1.52%
Fair Value$2,437.42$3,477.16$5,238.53
Upside / Downside-57.46%-39.32%-8.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,084.003,099.963,115.993,132.123,148.323,164.613,259.55
Payout Ratio6.78%23.42%40.07%56.71%73.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)209.00726.061,248.461,776.252,309.462,848.153,015.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.95%3.95%3.95%
Growth Rate-0.48%0.52%1.52%
Year 1 PV (M)691.52698.47705.42
Year 2 PV (M)1,132.511,155.381,178.48
Year 3 PV (M)1,534.631,581.361,629.02
Year 4 PV (M)1,900.401,977.942,057.83
Year 5 PV (M)2,232.182,346.612,465.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)236,300.99248,414.35261,019.45
Equity Value (M)243,792.22256,174.10269,055.89
Shares Outstanding (M)22.7322.7322.73
Fair Value$10,727.70$11,272.55$11,839.39
Upside / Downside87.22%96.73%106.62%

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