Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. (9064.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TruckingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,514.98 - $2,533.68$1,962.91
Multi-Stage$2,479.47 - $2,723.01$2,598.90
Blended Fair Value$2,280.91
Current Price$1,930.00
Upside18.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.68%4.61%47.4249.3450.3659.0647.8934.3233.1431.9533.5032.05
YoY Growth---3.88%-2.02%-14.74%23.32%39.53%3.59%3.71%-4.62%4.50%6.06%
Dividend Yield--2.46%2.82%1.93%2.72%1.52%1.47%1.47%0.98%1.47%1.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42,626.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15,409.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)27,217.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,525.205,328.253,196.95
Cash Retained (M)27,217.0027,217.0027,217.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,525.20-5,328.25-3,196.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)18,691.8021,888.7524,020.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)333.02333.02333.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share56.1365.7372.13
LTM Dividend per Share46.2746.2746.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share56.1365.7372.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend102.40112.00118.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.14%7.14%7.14%
Growth Rate0.35%1.35%2.35%
Fair Value$1,514.98$1,962.91$2,533.68
Upside / Downside-21.50%1.71%31.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42,626.0043,203.3943,788.6144,381.7544,982.9245,592.2446,960.01
Payout Ratio36.15%46.92%57.69%68.46%79.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15,409.0020,270.7925,261.4630,383.6235,639.9141,033.0243,438.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.14%7.14%7.14%
Growth Rate0.35%1.35%2.35%
Year 1 PV (M)18,733.6718,920.3519,107.02
Year 2 PV (M)21,575.6122,007.7422,444.15
Year 3 PV (M)23,982.6124,706.7125,445.25
Year 4 PV (M)25,998.3527,050.2028,133.65
Year 5 PV (M)27,662.7229,068.7130,531.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)707,771.12743,744.47781,165.88
Equity Value (M)825,724.09865,498.18906,827.26
Shares Outstanding (M)333.02333.02333.02
Fair Value$2,479.47$2,598.90$2,723.01
Upside / Downside28.47%34.66%41.09%

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