Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Leopalace21 Corporation (8848.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$259.47 - $401.42$325.30
Multi-Stage$582.28 - $641.53$611.32
Blended Fair Value$468.31
Current Price$714.00
Upside-34.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%7.560.000.000.000.000.007.0613.2512.270.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-46.70%7.95%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.50%2.18%1.76%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,943.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,238.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,705.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,388.601,492.88895.73
Cash Retained (M)8,705.008,705.008,705.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,388.60-1,492.88-895.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,316.407,212.137,809.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)428.30428.30428.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.7516.8418.23
LTM Dividend per Share7.567.567.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.7516.8418.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend22.3124.4025.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$259.47$325.30$401.42
Upside / Downside-63.66%-54.44%-43.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,943.0011,823.5711,705.3311,588.2811,472.4011,357.6711,698.40
Payout Ratio27.11%39.69%52.27%64.84%77.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,238.004,692.746,118.067,514.408,882.2110,221.9110,821.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,364.874,409.414,453.95
Year 2 PV (M)5,293.025,401.605,511.27
Year 3 PV (M)6,046.866,233.866,424.68
Year 4 PV (M)6,648.166,923.707,207.71
Year 5 PV (M)7,116.357,486.927,872.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)219,921.95231,373.80243,297.81
Equity Value (M)249,391.22261,829.29274,768.19
Shares Outstanding (M)428.30428.30428.30
Fair Value$582.28$611.32$641.53
Upside / Downside-18.45%-14.38%-10.15%

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