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Definitive Analysis

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The Gunma Bank, Ltd. (8334.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,708.98 - $24,257.75$21,267.27
Multi-Stage$3,054.93 - $3,343.37$3,196.50
Blended Fair Value$12,231.89
Current Price$1,210.50
Upside910.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS17.60%10.86%32.2620.9116.0515.3014.2214.3514.6813.6414.4714.08
YoY Growth--54.32%30.23%4.89%7.62%-0.87%-2.29%7.60%-5.71%2.76%22.35%
Dividend Yield--2.67%2.01%3.04%4.00%4.06%4.19%3.77%2.34%2.15%3.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46,798.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,378.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)34,420.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,359.605,849.753,509.85
Cash Retained (M)34,420.0034,420.0034,420.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,359.60-5,849.75-3,509.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)25,060.4028,570.2530,910.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)383.67383.67383.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share65.3274.4780.56
LTM Dividend per Share32.2632.2632.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share65.3274.4780.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend97.58106.73112.83
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,708.98$21,267.27$24,257.75
Upside / Downside454.23%1,656.90%1,903.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46,798.0049,839.8753,079.4656,529.6360,204.0564,117.3266,040.84
Payout Ratio26.45%39.16%51.87%64.58%77.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,378.0019,517.2327,532.2736,506.8046,531.6957,705.5861,087.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)18,063.3218,234.5318,405.75
Year 2 PV (M)23,583.0824,032.2724,485.70
Year 3 PV (M)28,940.8629,771.6530,618.18
Year 4 PV (M)34,140.1835,453.1136,803.56
Year 5 PV (M)39,184.4741,077.0943,042.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,028,169.841,077,830.831,129,392.46
Equity Value (M)1,172,081.731,226,399.481,282,747.79
Shares Outstanding (M)383.67383.67383.67
Fair Value$3,054.93$3,196.50$3,343.37
Upside / Downside152.37%164.06%176.20%

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