Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kokuyo Co., Ltd. (7984.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Business Equipment & SuppliesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10,738.43 - $20,163.18$18,895.85
Multi-Stage$3,175.98 - $3,476.15$3,323.31
Blended Fair Value$11,109.58
Current Price$826.80
Upside1,243.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.02%16.54%41.6035.9331.3824.4723.9720.6618.8716.8010.509.02
YoY Growth--15.78%14.51%28.24%2.08%16.02%9.50%12.33%60.01%16.44%0.11%
Dividend Yield--5.83%5.73%6.68%6.06%5.59%5.47%4.54%3.21%2.93%2.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,972.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,792.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,180.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,994.402,496.501,497.90
Cash Retained (M)11,180.0011,180.0011,180.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,994.40-2,496.50-1,497.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,185.608,683.509,682.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)196.99196.99196.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share36.4844.0849.15
LTM Dividend per Share44.6344.6344.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share36.4844.0849.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend81.1188.7193.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10,738.43$18,895.85$20,163.18
Upside / Downside1,198.79%2,185.42%2,338.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,972.0021,270.1822,652.7424,125.1725,693.3127,363.3728,184.27
Payout Ratio44.02%53.22%62.41%71.61%80.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,792.0011,319.4214,138.2517,275.7120,761.3024,627.0326,070.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,548.8810,648.8710,748.86
Year 2 PV (M)12,278.9312,512.8112,748.90
Year 3 PV (M)13,982.4514,383.8314,792.83
Year 4 PV (M)15,659.7316,261.9616,881.40
Year 5 PV (M)17,311.0818,147.2219,015.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)555,853.83582,701.78610,577.26
Equity Value (M)625,634.90654,656.47684,764.59
Shares Outstanding (M)196.99196.99196.99
Fair Value$3,175.98$3,323.31$3,476.15
Upside / Downside284.13%301.95%320.43%

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