Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Direct Marketing MiX Inc. (7354.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$242.77 - $371.45$302.90
Multi-Stage$511.27 - $563.39$536.82
Blended Fair Value$419.86
Current Price$310.00
Upside35.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%2.9517.064.752.140.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---82.72%259.12%121.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.09%5.45%0.35%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,265.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)210.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,055.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)253.18158.2494.94
Cash Retained (M)1,055.801,055.801,055.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-253.18-158.24-94.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)802.62897.56960.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)46.7946.7946.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share17.1619.1820.54
LTM Dividend per Share4.494.494.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share17.1619.1820.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend21.6523.6825.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$242.77$302.90$371.45
Upside / Downside-21.69%-2.29%19.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,265.901,253.241,240.711,228.301,216.021,203.861,239.97
Payout Ratio16.60%31.28%45.96%60.64%75.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)210.11391.99570.21744.83915.901,083.471,146.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)363.53367.24370.95
Year 2 PV (M)490.43500.49510.65
Year 3 PV (M)594.12612.49631.24
Year 4 PV (M)677.54705.62734.57
Year 5 PV (M)743.32782.03822.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,051.5422,147.7423,289.14
Equity Value (M)23,920.4925,115.6226,358.89
Shares Outstanding (M)46.7946.7946.79
Fair Value$511.27$536.82$563.39
Upside / Downside64.93%73.17%81.74%

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