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Definitive Analysis

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Koito Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (7276.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,310.01 - $4,121.57$3,072.61
Multi-Stage$3,900.25 - $4,285.87$4,089.36
Blended Fair Value$3,580.98
Current Price$1,724.50
Upside107.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.21%14.15%58.2544.2729.9629.9522.1957.6555.4138.7922.1623.28
YoY Growth--31.60%47.77%0.01%35.01%-61.51%4.03%42.87%75.02%-4.79%50.02%
Dividend Yield--3.38%2.00%1.16%1.39%0.64%2.66%1.88%1.06%0.77%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49,064.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16,257.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)32,807.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,812.806,133.003,679.80
Cash Retained (M)32,807.0032,807.0032,807.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,812.80-6,133.00-3,679.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)22,994.2026,674.0029,127.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)289.92289.92289.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share79.3192.00100.47
LTM Dividend per Share56.0756.0756.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share79.3192.00100.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend135.39148.08156.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.64%1.64%2.64%
Fair Value$2,310.01$3,072.61$4,121.57
Upside / Downside33.95%78.17%139.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49,064.0049,868.3250,685.8251,516.7252,361.2553,219.6254,816.21
Payout Ratio33.13%44.51%55.88%67.25%78.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16,257.0022,195.1028,323.5234,646.9141,170.0047,897.6650,704.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.64%1.64%2.64%
Year 1 PV (M)20,628.1420,833.1121,038.08
Year 2 PV (M)24,465.4524,954.0725,447.52
Year 3 PV (M)27,814.6428,652.0529,506.09
Year 4 PV (M)30,718.0031,957.2333,233.59
Year 5 PV (M)33,214.6234,897.9236,648.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)993,930.481,044,302.441,096,696.28
Equity Value (M)1,130,771.331,185,596.821,242,570.35
Shares Outstanding (M)289.92289.92289.92
Fair Value$3,900.25$4,089.36$4,285.87
Upside / Downside126.17%137.13%148.53%

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