Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Elm Company (7203.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,208.10 - $5,360.00$2,844.70
Multi-Stage$620.57 - $678.82$649.16
Blended Fair Value$1,746.93
Current Price$895.50
Upside95.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS86.05%0.00%7.335.874.880.000.420.334.734.820.000.00
YoY Growth--25.00%20.15%0.00%-100.00%28.09%-93.05%-1.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.76%0.60%1.11%0.00%0.25%0.20%2.85%2.90%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,141.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)661.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,480.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)428.34267.71160.63
Cash Retained (M)1,480.171,480.171,480.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-428.34-267.71-160.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,051.821,212.451,319.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)79.4779.4779.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.2415.2616.61
LTM Dividend per Share8.328.328.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.2415.2616.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend21.5623.5824.93
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,208.10$2,844.70$5,360.00
Upside / Downside34.91%217.67%498.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,141.712,280.922,429.182,587.082,755.242,934.333,022.36
Payout Ratio30.89%42.71%54.53%66.36%78.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)661.55974.201,324.711,716.672,153.982,640.902,795.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)898.70907.22915.74
Year 2 PV (M)1,127.341,148.821,170.49
Year 3 PV (M)1,347.691,386.381,425.80
Year 4 PV (M)1,559.961,619.951,681.66
Year 5 PV (M)1,764.371,849.591,938.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,615.3944,673.7346,810.85
Equity Value (M)49,313.4651,585.6953,942.61
Shares Outstanding (M)79.4779.4779.47
Fair Value$620.57$649.16$678.82
Upside / Downside-30.70%-27.51%-24.20%

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