Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mitsui E&S Holdings Co., Ltd. (7003.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,106.14 - $1,493.23$1,304.43
Multi-Stage$2,488.71 - $2,755.73$2,619.44
Blended Fair Value$1,961.93
Current Price$4,475.00
Upside-56.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS313.10%-3.12%11.927.820.000.000.000.010.0323.9431.9115.98
YoY Growth--52.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-66.67%-99.88%-24.97%99.75%-2.42%
Dividend Yield--0.42%0.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.65%1.99%1.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24,321.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,002.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)22,319.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,864.203,040.131,824.08
Cash Retained (M)22,319.0022,319.0022,319.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,864.20-3,040.13-1,824.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)17,454.8019,278.8820,494.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)100.90100.90100.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share172.98191.06203.11
LTM Dividend per Share19.8419.8419.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share172.98191.06203.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend192.82210.90222.95
WACC / Discount Rate7.92%7.92%7.92%
Growth Rate-8.10%-7.10%-6.10%
Fair Value$1,106.14$1,304.43$1,493.23
Upside / Downside-75.28%-70.85%-66.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24,321.0022,593.7320,989.1319,498.4918,113.7216,827.2917,332.11
Payout Ratio8.23%24.59%40.94%57.29%73.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,002.005,554.738,592.7311,171.2013,340.0915,144.5616,032.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.92%7.92%7.92%
Growth Rate-8.10%-7.10%-6.10%
Year 1 PV (M)5,091.785,147.185,202.59
Year 2 PV (M)7,220.127,378.107,537.80
Year 3 PV (M)8,604.388,888.339,178.47
Year 4 PV (M)9,418.579,835.2610,265.64
Year 5 PV (M)9,801.4310,346.4410,915.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)210,985.95222,717.86234,965.94
Equity Value (M)251,122.21264,313.18278,065.87
Shares Outstanding (M)100.90100.90100.90
Fair Value$2,488.71$2,619.44$2,755.73
Upside / Downside-44.39%-41.47%-38.42%

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