Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (688639.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.36 - $148.38$64.71
Multi-Stage$16.25 - $17.78$17.00
Blended Fair Value$40.85
Current Price$33.70
Upside21.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.71%24.74%0.730.430.240.150.010.300.020.130.030.14
YoY Growth--68.44%80.69%60.45%1,214.76%-96.17%1,509.63%-85.38%290.00%-77.04%76.05%
Dividend Yield--2.47%0.57%0.30%0.30%0.07%1.77%0.00%0.00%0.19%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)187.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)151.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.4523.4114.04
Cash Retained (M)151.85151.85151.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.45-23.41-14.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)114.40128.44137.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)250.97250.97250.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.510.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.510.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.36$64.71$148.38
Upside / Downside-9.92%92.02%340.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)187.25199.42212.38226.18240.89256.54264.24
Payout Ratio18.91%33.13%47.34%61.56%75.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.4066.06100.55139.24182.55230.89244.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)60.8361.4161.98
Year 2 PV (M)85.2686.8988.53
Year 3 PV (M)108.73111.85115.03
Year 4 PV (M)131.27136.31141.51
Year 5 PV (M)152.89160.27167.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,538.143,709.033,886.46
Equity Value (M)4,077.124,265.764,461.45
Shares Outstanding (M)250.97250.97250.97
Fair Value$16.25$17.00$17.78
Upside / Downside-51.79%-49.56%-47.25%

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