Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

APT Medical Inc. (688617.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$124.51 - $270.76$178.33
Multi-Stage$90.60 - $98.94$94.70
Blended Fair Value$136.51
Current Price$316.73
Upside-56.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS86.32%0.00%1.120.940.580.280.010.050.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--19.38%62.62%107.89%2,249.12%-76.32%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.42%0.45%0.34%0.27%0.01%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)768.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)170.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)598.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)153.6696.0457.62
Cash Retained (M)598.05598.05598.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-153.66-96.04-57.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)444.39502.01540.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.33119.33119.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.724.214.53
LTM Dividend per Share1.431.431.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.724.214.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.155.635.96
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$124.51$178.33$270.76
Upside / Downside-60.69%-43.70%-14.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)768.31818.25871.44928.08988.401,052.651,084.23
Payout Ratio22.16%35.73%49.30%62.86%76.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)170.26292.35429.58583.43755.46947.381,002.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)263.60266.10268.59
Year 2 PV (M)349.25355.90362.62
Year 3 PV (M)427.68439.96452.47
Year 4 PV (M)499.33518.54538.29
Year 5 PV (M)564.61591.88620.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,707.069,127.619,564.26
Equity Value (M)10,811.5411,299.9911,806.43
Shares Outstanding (M)119.33119.33119.33
Fair Value$90.60$94.70$98.94
Upside / Downside-71.39%-70.10%-68.76%

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