Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Suzhou Jinhong Gas Co.,Ltd. (688106.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.36 - $42.84$40.14
Multi-Stage$9.42 - $10.32$9.86
Blended Fair Value$25.00
Current Price$19.76
Upside26.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.13%22.59%0.560.290.280.280.090.140.050.070.060.07
YoY Growth--94.92%4.01%0.52%198.45%-33.78%167.16%-26.50%11.50%-4.72%-8.79%
Dividend Yield--3.10%1.48%1.20%1.20%0.37%0.36%0.13%0.18%0.16%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.3513.348.00
Cash Retained (M)34.3034.3034.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.35-13.34-8.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.9520.9626.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)495.50495.50495.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate5.41%5.41%5.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.36$40.14$42.84
Upside / Downside84.00%103.16%116.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.73113.66121.05128.92137.30146.22150.61
Payout Ratio67.86%72.29%76.72%81.15%85.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.4382.1792.87104.61117.49131.60139.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.41%5.41%5.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)77.2277.9578.68
Year 2 PV (M)82.0283.5885.16
Year 3 PV (M)86.8289.3291.86
Year 4 PV (M)91.6495.1698.79
Year 5 PV (M)96.46101.12105.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,235.274,439.834,652.23
Equity Value (M)4,669.434,886.965,112.66
Shares Outstanding (M)495.50495.50495.50
Fair Value$9.42$9.86$10.32
Upside / Downside-52.31%-50.09%-47.78%

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