Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kunshan GuoLi Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. (688103.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.85 - $86.90$34.54
Multi-Stage$12.24 - $13.38$12.80
Blended Fair Value$23.67
Current Price$73.49
Upside-67.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.12%17.66%0.250.270.320.010.140.030.040.030.150.05
YoY Growth---10.24%-13.49%6,086.07%-96.21%318.49%-23.36%40.66%-80.65%201.88%5.91%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.70%0.53%0.01%0.18%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)61.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.307.694.61
Cash Retained (M)43.6843.6843.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.30-7.69-4.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.3936.0039.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)95.5495.5495.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.380.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.380.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.60
WACC / Discount Rate8.24%8.24%8.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.85$34.54$86.90
Upside / Downside-72.99%-53.00%18.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)61.4965.4969.7574.2879.1184.2586.78
Payout Ratio28.96%41.17%53.37%65.58%77.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.8126.9637.2348.7161.5475.8280.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.24%8.24%8.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)24.6724.9125.14
Year 2 PV (M)31.1831.7832.38
Year 3 PV (M)37.3538.4239.51
Year 4 PV (M)43.1844.8446.55
Year 5 PV (M)48.6951.0453.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)984.351,031.891,081.25
Equity Value (M)1,169.421,222.871,278.31
Shares Outstanding (M)95.5495.5495.54
Fair Value$12.24$12.80$13.38
Upside / Downside-83.34%-82.58%-81.79%

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