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Definitive Analysis

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Riken Corporation (6462.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,244.43 - $6,478.12$5,290.08
Multi-Stage$9,484.92 - $10,454.27$9,960.00
Blended Fair Value$7,625.04
Current Price$3,125.00
Upside144.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-1.98%1.07%119.55114.37104.01137.88141.86132.10118.35118.05117.45107.59
YoY Growth--4.53%9.96%-24.57%-2.81%7.39%11.62%0.25%0.51%9.17%0.09%
Dividend Yield--3.83%4.89%4.07%4.61%3.37%2.28%2.33%3.76%2.49%2.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,803.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,009.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,794.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)960.60600.38360.23
Cash Retained (M)3,794.003,794.003,794.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-960.60-600.38-360.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,833.403,193.633,433.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.0410.0410.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share282.27318.16342.08
LTM Dividend per Share100.52100.52100.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share282.27318.16342.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend382.79418.68442.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.28%-1.28%-0.28%
Fair Value$4,244.43$5,290.08$6,478.12
Upside / Downside35.82%69.28%107.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,803.004,741.724,681.234,621.514,562.554,504.344,639.47
Payout Ratio21.01%34.81%48.60%62.40%76.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,009.001,650.412,275.292,883.963,476.734,053.914,291.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.28%-1.28%-0.28%
Year 1 PV (M)1,533.441,549.141,564.83
Year 2 PV (M)1,964.212,004.622,045.43
Year 3 PV (M)2,313.222,384.962,458.17
Year 4 PV (M)2,591.042,698.732,809.75
Year 5 PV (M)2,807.062,953.653,106.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)83,999.8388,386.4992,954.53
Equity Value (M)95,208.8099,977.58104,939.01
Shares Outstanding (M)10.0410.0410.04
Fair Value$9,484.92$9,960.00$10,454.27
Upside / Downside203.52%218.72%234.54%

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