Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Takakita Co., Ltd. (6325.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$893.82 - $2,199.05$1,334.69
Multi-Stage$713.78 - $781.54$747.03
Blended Fair Value$1,040.86
Current Price$375.00
Upside177.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.71%6.52%14.7312.709.9910.1210.1910.1610.1413.179.127.45
YoY Growth--15.93%27.21%-1.35%-0.69%0.32%0.16%-22.96%44.38%22.47%-4.91%
Dividend Yield--3.93%2.71%2.15%1.98%1.61%1.70%1.81%1.87%1.75%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)465.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)421.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)93.1758.2334.94
Cash Retained (M)421.47421.47421.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-93.17-58.23-34.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)328.30363.24386.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.3511.3511.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share28.9231.9934.05
LTM Dividend per Share3.913.913.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share28.9231.9934.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend32.8335.9037.96
WACC / Discount Rate8.36%8.36%8.36%
Growth Rate4.52%5.52%6.52%
Fair Value$893.82$1,334.69$2,199.05
Upside / Downside138.35%255.92%486.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)465.86491.57518.70547.32577.53609.40627.68
Payout Ratio9.53%25.62%41.72%57.81%73.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.39125.96216.39316.42426.83548.46580.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.36%8.36%8.36%
Growth Rate4.52%5.52%6.52%
Year 1 PV (M)115.14116.24117.34
Year 2 PV (M)180.82184.30187.81
Year 3 PV (M)241.70248.71255.84
Year 4 PV (M)298.04309.62321.52
Year 5 PV (M)350.09367.16384.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,918.077,255.427,605.79
Equity Value (M)8,103.878,481.448,873.20
Shares Outstanding (M)11.3511.3511.35
Fair Value$713.78$747.03$781.54
Upside / Downside90.34%99.21%108.41%

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