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Definitive Analysis

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Iseki & Co., Ltd. (6310.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$713.92 - $1,126.36$902.63
Multi-Stage$1,646.69 - $1,816.72$1,730.02
Blended Fair Value$1,316.32
Current Price$2,248.00
Upside-41.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.18%-2.79%30.3230.4130.010.0429.9730.0529.9715.0714.8529.66
YoY Growth---0.29%1.33%67,800.00%-99.85%-0.29%0.29%98.83%1.49%-49.93%-26.26%
Dividend Yield--2.80%2.95%2.52%0.00%1.82%2.63%1.79%0.71%0.65%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,631.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,629.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)326.20203.88122.33
Cash Retained (M)1,629.001,629.001,629.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-326.20-203.88-122.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,302.801,425.131,506.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.6322.6322.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share57.5862.9966.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share57.5862.9966.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend57.6763.0766.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.11%6.11%6.11%
Growth Rate-1.82%-0.82%0.18%
Fair Value$713.92$902.63$1,126.36
Upside / Downside-68.24%-59.85%-49.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,631.001,617.561,604.231,591.011,577.891,564.891,611.84
Payout Ratio0.12%18.10%36.07%54.05%72.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.00292.75578.70859.921,136.471,408.401,490.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.11%6.11%6.11%
Growth Rate-1.82%-0.82%0.18%
Year 1 PV (M)273.12275.90278.68
Year 2 PV (M)503.70514.01524.43
Year 3 PV (M)698.29719.85741.84
Year 4 PV (M)860.98896.60933.31
Year 5 PV (M)995.451,047.191,101.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,926.9035,690.3237,526.32
Equity Value (M)37,258.4339,143.8741,105.64
Shares Outstanding (M)22.6322.6322.63
Fair Value$1,646.69$1,730.02$1,816.72
Upside / Downside-26.75%-23.04%-19.18%

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