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Definitive Analysis

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Nabtesco Corporation (6268.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,687.21 - $2,910.37$2,213.96
Multi-Stage$3,068.34 - $3,369.01$3,215.79
Blended Fair Value$2,714.87
Current Price$3,349.00
Upside-18.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.25%6.62%80.4579.2078.1773.3480.7675.6076.5462.0648.5547.16
YoY Growth--1.58%1.31%6.59%-9.19%6.83%-1.23%23.32%27.82%2.95%11.33%
Dividend Yield--3.48%3.00%2.41%2.25%1.60%3.03%2.25%1.51%1.65%1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,966.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,652.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,314.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,193.201,995.751,197.45
Cash Retained (M)6,314.006,314.006,314.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,193.20-1,995.75-1,197.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,120.804,318.255,116.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.99119.99119.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share26.0135.9942.64
LTM Dividend per Share80.4480.4480.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share26.0135.9942.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend106.45116.43123.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.22%1.22%2.22%
Fair Value$1,687.21$2,213.96$2,910.37
Upside / Downside-49.62%-33.89%-13.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,966.0016,160.2516,356.8616,555.8716,757.2916,961.1717,470.01
Payout Ratio60.45%66.36%72.27%78.18%84.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,652.0010,724.3911,821.4412,943.6114,091.3315,265.0516,159.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.22%1.22%2.22%
Year 1 PV (M)9,966.6810,066.1310,165.58
Year 2 PV (M)10,210.0110,414.7910,621.59
Year 3 PV (M)10,389.3610,703.4811,023.87
Year 4 PV (M)10,511.4610,937.3311,376.01
Year 5 PV (M)10,582.4811,121.1011,681.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)316,517.86332,627.85349,387.23
Equity Value (M)368,177.84385,870.68404,255.72
Shares Outstanding (M)119.99119.99119.99
Fair Value$3,068.34$3,215.79$3,369.01
Upside / Downside-8.38%-3.98%0.60%

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