Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HIRANO TECSEED Co.,Ltd. (6245.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,045.61 - $12,357.40$11,580.69
Multi-Stage$1,813.20 - $1,983.77$1,896.92
Blended Fair Value$6,738.80
Current Price$1,601.00
Upside320.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.59%16.98%104.7855.7855.7549.6842.7044.6834.7628.7723.8512.95
YoY Growth--87.84%0.07%12.21%16.34%-4.42%28.52%20.85%20.61%84.16%-40.71%
Dividend Yield--7.09%2.99%2.60%2.95%1.68%3.38%2.05%1.08%1.73%1.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)939.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)452.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)486.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)187.99117.5070.50
Cash Retained (M)486.99486.99486.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-187.99-117.50-70.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)299.00369.50416.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.1315.1315.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share19.7724.4327.53
LTM Dividend per Share29.9429.9429.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share19.7724.4327.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend49.7154.3757.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5,045.61$11,580.69$12,357.40
Upside / Downside215.15%623.34%671.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)939.961,001.061,066.131,135.431,209.231,287.831,326.47
Payout Ratio48.19%56.55%64.91%73.28%81.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)452.97566.12692.07832.00987.191,159.051,226.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)526.39531.37536.36
Year 2 PV (M)598.32609.72621.22
Year 3 PV (M)668.81688.01707.57
Year 4 PV (M)737.86766.23795.42
Year 5 PV (M)805.50844.40884.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,092.0425,255.6926,463.88
Equity Value (M)27,428.9128,695.4330,009.26
Shares Outstanding (M)15.1315.1315.13
Fair Value$1,813.20$1,896.92$1,983.77
Upside / Downside13.25%18.48%23.91%

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