Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Motech Industries Inc. (6244.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SolarSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.81 - $2.47$2.14
Multi-Stage$5.02 - $5.52$5.26
Blended Fair Value$3.70
Current Price$17.45
Upside-78.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-5.58%0.320.440.180.180.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---28.89%145.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.58%1.61%0.49%0.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)141.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)139.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.2917.6810.61
Cash Retained (M)2.132.132.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.29-17.68-10.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)-26.16-15.55-8.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)391.73391.73391.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.04-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.04-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.33
WACC / Discount Rate7.20%7.20%7.20%
Growth Rate-7.58%-6.58%-5.58%
Fair Value$1.81$2.14$2.47
Upside / Downside-89.65%-87.72%-85.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)141.46132.15123.46115.33107.74100.65103.67
Payout Ratio98.50%96.80%95.10%93.40%91.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)139.34127.92117.40107.7298.8090.5895.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.20%7.20%7.20%
Growth Rate-7.58%-6.58%-5.58%
Year 1 PV (M)118.05119.33120.61
Year 2 PV (M)99.99102.17104.37
Year 3 PV (M)84.6787.4590.28
Year 4 PV (M)71.6774.8278.07
Year 5 PV (M)60.6463.9967.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,529.611,614.181,702.44
Equity Value (M)1,964.632,061.932,163.27
Shares Outstanding (M)391.73391.73391.73
Fair Value$5.02$5.26$5.52
Upside / Downside-71.26%-69.84%-68.35%

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