Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ChangZhou KAIDI Electrical Inc. (605288.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.16 - $5.89$5.01
Multi-Stage$6.64 - $7.27$6.95
Blended Fair Value$5.98
Current Price$94.10
Upside-93.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-34.76%0.00%0.480.270.500.740.274.040.150.640.470.03
YoY Growth--75.80%-45.89%-32.38%175.31%-93.33%2,548.53%-76.35%37.49%1,408.39%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.20%0.72%1.35%1.80%0.32%4.24%0.16%0.68%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.875.543.32
Cash Retained (M)16.9016.9016.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.87-5.54-3.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.0411.3613.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)69.7969.7969.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.160.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.160.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.16$5.01$5.89
Upside / Downside-95.58%-94.67%-93.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.3343.8943.4543.0142.5842.1643.42
Payout Ratio61.87%67.49%73.12%78.75%84.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.4329.6231.7733.8735.9337.9440.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)26.6626.9327.21
Year 2 PV (M)25.7426.2726.80
Year 3 PV (M)24.7025.4726.24
Year 4 PV (M)23.5824.5625.57
Year 5 PV (M)22.4223.5924.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)340.23357.95376.39
Equity Value (M)463.33484.76507.02
Shares Outstanding (M)69.7969.7969.79
Fair Value$6.64$6.95$7.27
Upside / Downside-92.94%-92.62%-92.28%

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