Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Libert Inc. (605167.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.60 - $97.32$91.20
Multi-Stage$58.23 - $63.91$61.02
Blended Fair Value$76.11
Current Price$10.50
Upside624.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS54.72%0.00%0.060.050.010.130.070.010.070.040.000.00
YoY Growth--10.67%581.10%-94.11%73.00%1,053.82%-90.87%84.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.58%0.53%0.09%1.46%1.05%0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)218.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)57.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)161.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.6327.2716.36
Cash Retained (M)161.12161.12161.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.63-27.27-16.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.49133.85144.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)445.84445.84445.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate1.55%1.55%1.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$82.60$91.20$97.32
Upside / Downside686.68%768.58%826.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)218.17232.35247.45263.54280.67298.91307.88
Payout Ratio26.15%38.92%51.69%64.46%77.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)57.0590.43127.91169.87216.76269.02284.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.55%1.55%1.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)88.2189.0589.89
Year 2 PV (M)121.72124.04126.38
Year 3 PV (M)157.70162.23166.84
Year 4 PV (M)196.30203.85211.62
Year 5 PV (M)237.67249.15261.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,160.2626,375.5127,637.28
Equity Value (M)25,961.8827,203.8428,493.08
Shares Outstanding (M)445.84445.84445.84
Fair Value$58.23$61.02$63.91
Upside / Downside454.58%481.11%508.65%

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