Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Jihua Group Co., Ltd. (603980.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.30 - $0.40$0.36
Multi-Stage$1.06 - $1.18$1.12
Blended Fair Value$0.74
Current Price$5.66
Upside-86.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-24.18%-15.98%0.070.090.160.170.510.280.180.290.290.06
YoY Growth---20.56%-44.78%-7.51%-66.07%81.99%54.27%-37.50%0.00%427.34%-86.24%
Dividend Yield--1.56%2.31%3.39%2.92%7.98%3.91%1.48%2.19%1.65%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.317.074.24
Cash Retained (M)4.124.124.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.31-7.07-4.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)-7.20-2.95-0.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)685.14685.14685.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-12.50%-11.50%-10.50%
Fair Value$0.30$0.36$0.40
Upside / Downside-94.62%-93.72%-92.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.5650.0544.3039.2034.6930.7031.62
Payout Ratio92.72%92.18%91.63%91.09%90.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.4446.1440.5935.7131.4127.6329.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-12.50%-11.50%-10.50%
Year 1 PV (M)42.8443.3343.82
Year 2 PV (M)34.9935.8036.61
Year 3 PV (M)28.5829.5730.59
Year 4 PV (M)23.3524.4325.55
Year 5 PV (M)19.0720.1821.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)579.06612.92648.34
Equity Value (M)727.89766.23806.26
Shares Outstanding (M)685.14685.14685.14
Fair Value$1.06$1.12$1.18
Upside / Downside-81.23%-80.24%-79.21%

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