Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Kelai Mechatronics Engineering Co.,Ltd. (603960.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.42 - $7.25$4.85
Multi-Stage$2.50 - $2.73$2.62
Blended Fair Value$3.73
Current Price$21.48
Upside-82.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.96%17.59%0.150.080.060.160.120.050.070.050.010.01
YoY Growth--81.46%28.83%-61.71%31.06%129.98%-25.05%51.07%579.30%-17.58%-70.45%
Dividend Yield--0.74%0.26%0.32%0.83%0.43%0.26%0.35%0.35%0.05%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.815.513.30
Cash Retained (M)34.7134.7134.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.81-5.51-3.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.9029.2131.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)242.32242.32242.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.42$4.85$7.25
Upside / Downside-84.10%-77.41%-66.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.0546.9149.9653.2156.6760.3562.16
Payout Ratio21.20%34.96%48.72%62.48%76.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.3416.4024.3433.2543.2054.3257.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14.7714.9115.05
Year 2 PV (M)19.7420.1220.50
Year 3 PV (M)24.2924.9825.69
Year 4 PV (M)28.4329.5230.64
Year 5 PV (M)32.1833.7435.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)487.31510.85535.29
Equity Value (M)606.73634.12662.53
Shares Outstanding (M)242.32242.32242.32
Fair Value$2.50$2.62$2.73
Upside / Downside-88.34%-87.82%-87.27%

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