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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Greenda Electronic Materials Co., Ltd. (603931.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$104.94 - $123.71$115.90
Multi-Stage$239.16 - $263.26$250.97
Blended Fair Value$183.44
Current Price$26.62
Upside589.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.06%0.00%0.270.250.210.150.130.140.110.270.180.00
YoY Growth--6.00%16.67%40.00%15.11%-3.12%20.49%-58.39%49.65%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.94%1.14%0.62%0.79%0.61%0.87%0.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)127.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)83.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.5215.959.57
Cash Retained (M)83.7083.7083.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.52-15.95-9.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.1867.7574.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)199.56199.56199.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate-21.60%-21.60%-21.60%
Growth Rate2.58%3.58%4.58%
Fair Value$104.94$115.90$123.71
Upside / Downside294.23%335.39%364.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)127.60132.17136.89141.79146.86152.11156.67
Payout Ratio34.41%45.52%56.64%67.76%78.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43.9060.1777.5496.08115.84136.90144.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-21.60%-21.60%-21.60%
Growth Rate2.58%3.58%4.58%
Year 1 PV (M)76.0076.7477.48
Year 2 PV (M)123.71126.14128.59
Year 3 PV (M)193.62199.34205.17
Year 4 PV (M)294.88306.55318.56
Year 5 PV (M)440.17462.05484.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,597.0848,913.1651,320.42
Equity Value (M)47,725.4850,083.9852,535.02
Shares Outstanding (M)199.56199.56199.56
Fair Value$239.16$250.97$263.26
Upside / Downside798.41%842.80%888.94%

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