Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Tieliu Clutch Co., Ltd. (603926.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.68 - $89.68$84.05
Multi-Stage$13.33 - $14.58$13.94
Blended Fair Value$48.99
Current Price$17.64
Upside177.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.97%0.84%0.430.110.160.380.210.140.610.010.120.12
YoY Growth--287.60%-30.27%-57.94%79.21%55.72%-77.65%10,362.91%-95.06%-1.05%-70.00%
Dividend Yield--4.21%0.95%1.69%3.59%2.40%1.51%5.94%0.04%0.68%0.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)101.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)67.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.3512.727.63
Cash Retained (M)33.7533.7533.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.35-12.72-7.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.4121.0426.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)225.59225.59225.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.68$84.05$89.68
Upside / Downside107.93%376.45%408.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)101.73108.34115.38122.88130.87139.38143.56
Payout Ratio66.82%71.46%76.09%80.73%85.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)67.9877.4287.8099.20111.72125.44132.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)71.9872.6773.35
Year 2 PV (M)75.9177.3578.81
Year 3 PV (M)79.7582.0484.37
Year 4 PV (M)83.5186.7290.02
Year 5 PV (M)87.1891.3995.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,608.892,734.902,865.73
Equity Value (M)3,007.213,145.063,288.05
Shares Outstanding (M)225.59225.59225.59
Fair Value$13.33$13.94$14.58
Upside / Downside-24.43%-20.97%-17.37%

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