Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd. (603915.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.89 - $10.68$7.89
Multi-Stage$9.91 - $10.88$10.39
Blended Fair Value$9.14
Current Price$17.03
Upside-46.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.330.200.220.180.140.000.000.000.000.08
YoY Growth--59.02%-5.90%20.79%25.64%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.88%1.47%1.11%0.86%0.54%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)270.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)157.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.0633.7920.27
Cash Retained (M)112.79112.79112.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.06-33.79-20.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.7379.0092.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)645.68645.68645.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.81%1.81%2.81%
Fair Value$5.89$7.89$10.68
Upside / Downside-65.39%-53.68%-37.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)270.32275.21280.19285.27290.43295.69304.56
Payout Ratio58.27%64.62%70.96%77.31%83.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)157.53177.84198.84220.54242.96266.12281.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.81%1.81%2.81%
Year 1 PV (M)165.29166.92168.56
Year 2 PV (M)171.76175.18178.64
Year 3 PV (M)177.05182.37187.80
Year 4 PV (M)181.28188.58196.10
Year 5 PV (M)184.55193.88203.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,520.165,799.436,089.89
Equity Value (M)6,400.076,706.377,024.59
Shares Outstanding (M)645.68645.68645.68
Fair Value$9.91$10.39$10.88
Upside / Downside-41.80%-39.01%-36.12%

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