Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

RoadMainT Co.,Ltd. (603860.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.33 - $12.01$9.41
Multi-Stage$13.79 - $15.17$14.46
Blended Fair Value$11.94
Current Price$30.60
Upside-60.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.51%-6.33%0.150.120.110.110.170.140.140.170.160.03
YoY Growth--33.88%1.11%8.74%-36.44%15.23%-0.20%-15.32%4.31%539.52%-91.45%
Dividend Yield--0.53%0.41%0.37%0.44%0.78%0.55%0.49%0.49%0.72%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.775.483.29
Cash Retained (M)32.6932.6932.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.77-5.48-3.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.9227.2129.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.6866.6866.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.410.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.410.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-0.49%0.51%1.51%
Fair Value$7.33$9.41$12.01
Upside / Downside-76.05%-69.23%-60.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.8544.0744.3044.5344.7644.9946.34
Payout Ratio25.44%38.35%51.27%64.18%77.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.1616.9022.7128.5834.5040.4942.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-0.49%0.51%1.51%
Year 1 PV (M)15.6915.8516.01
Year 2 PV (M)19.5719.9620.36
Year 3 PV (M)22.8623.5524.26
Year 4 PV (M)25.6226.6627.74
Year 5 PV (M)27.9029.3330.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)807.64849.04892.13
Equity Value (M)919.27964.401,011.32
Shares Outstanding (M)66.6866.6866.68
Fair Value$13.79$14.46$15.17
Upside / Downside-54.95%-52.73%-50.44%

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