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Definitive Analysis

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Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co., Ltd. (603713.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$292.11 - $698.63$654.72
Multi-Stage$102.73 - $112.43$107.49
Blended Fair Value$381.10
Current Price$63.88
Upside496.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS46.80%103.41%1.490.980.920.470.290.220.030.020.040.00
YoY Growth--51.16%7.06%94.67%62.37%33.29%585.77%76.65%-49.31%1,984.59%38.91%
Dividend Yield--3.00%1.93%0.84%0.38%0.24%0.44%0.08%0.11%0.22%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)599.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)244.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)355.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)119.9474.9644.98
Cash Retained (M)355.61355.61355.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-119.94-74.96-44.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)235.67280.65310.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)170.71170.71170.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.381.641.82
LTM Dividend per Share1.431.431.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.381.641.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.813.073.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$292.11$654.72$698.63
Upside / Downside357.28%924.92%993.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)599.70638.68680.19724.41771.49821.64846.29
Payout Ratio40.70%50.56%60.42%70.28%80.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)244.09322.92410.98509.12618.28739.48782.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)300.33303.17306.02
Year 2 PV (M)355.47362.24369.08
Year 3 PV (M)409.54421.30433.27
Year 4 PV (M)462.54480.33498.63
Year 5 PV (M)514.50539.35565.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,495.1816,243.6017,020.67
Equity Value (M)17,537.5618,349.9919,192.82
Shares Outstanding (M)170.71170.71170.71
Fair Value$102.73$107.49$112.43
Upside / Downside60.82%68.27%76.00%

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