Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Dehong Automotive Electronic & Electrical Co., Ltd. (603701.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.14 - $1.63$1.38
Multi-Stage$1.79 - $1.95$1.87
Blended Fair Value$1.63
Current Price$20.00
Upside-91.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-36.47%-12.89%0.030.010.050.050.160.280.100.150.090.11
YoY Growth--131.96%-75.50%5.59%-69.38%-43.71%195.04%-36.72%75.20%-20.57%-6.39%
Dividend Yield--0.19%0.11%0.32%0.52%1.93%3.46%1.26%1.85%0.55%1.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.505.313.19
Cash Retained (M)16.9616.9616.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.50-5.31-3.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.4611.6513.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)255.00255.00255.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.150.15
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-1.58%-0.58%0.42%
Fair Value$1.14$1.38$1.63
Upside / Downside-94.29%-93.09%-91.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.4842.2441.9941.7541.5141.2642.50
Payout Ratio60.08%66.07%72.05%78.03%84.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.5227.9030.2532.5834.8737.1439.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-1.58%-0.58%0.42%
Year 1 PV (M)25.1325.3925.64
Year 2 PV (M)24.5425.0425.55
Year 3 PV (M)23.8024.5325.28
Year 4 PV (M)22.9523.8924.87
Year 5 PV (M)22.0123.1524.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)337.12354.60372.80
Equity Value (M)455.56476.61498.48
Shares Outstanding (M)255.00255.00255.00
Fair Value$1.79$1.87$1.95
Upside / Downside-91.07%-90.65%-90.23%

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