DDM Analysis: 603700.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.03 - $6.11	$5.01
Multi-Stage	$9.00 - $9.91	$9.45
Blended Fair Value	$7.23
Current Price	$11.90
Upside	-39.27%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-4.74%	-0.30%	0.31	0.32	0.81	0.42	0.24	0.39	0.24	0.36	0.24	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	-3.88%	-60.86%	94.87%	74.97%	-38.86%	61.01%	-33.67%	50.35%	405.56%	-84.76%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.66%	2.69%	5.77%	2.48%	0.94%	1.62%	1.03%	1.98%	1.32%	0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	92.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	40.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)	51.68

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	18.52	11.58	6.95
Cash Retained (M)	51.68	51.68	51.68
(-) Cash Required (M)	-18.52	-11.58	-6.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	33.16	40.11	44.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	200.72	200.72	200.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.20	0.22
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.20	0.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.37	0.40	0.43
WACC / Discount Rate	6.66%	6.66%	6.66%
Growth Rate	-2.30%	-1.30%	-0.30%
Fair Value	$4.03	$5.01	$6.11
Upside / Downside	-66.17%	-57.93%	-48.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	92.60	91.40	90.21	89.04	87.88	86.73	89.34
Payout Ratio	44.19%	53.35%	62.51%	71.68%	80.84%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	40.92	48.76	56.39	63.82	71.04	78.06	82.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.66%	6.66%	6.66%
Growth Rate	-2.30%	-1.30%	-0.30%
Year 1 PV (M)	45.26	45.72	46.18
Year 2 PV (M)	48.57	49.57	50.58
Year 3 PV (M)	51.02	52.60	54.21
Year 4 PV (M)	52.70	54.89	57.15
Year 5 PV (M)	53.75	56.56	59.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,555.85	1,637.12	1,721.75
Equity Value (M)	1,807.15	1,896.46	1,989.37
Shares Outstanding (M)	200.72	200.72	200.72
Fair Value	$9.00	$9.45	$9.91
Upside / Downside	-24.34%	-20.60%	-16.71%

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MMC	Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.	1.90%	$3.47	41.48%
THO	Thor Industries, Inc.	1.90%	$2.00	37.63%
TRGP	Targa Resources Corp.	1.90%	$3.55	46.50%
TTC	The Toro Company	1.90%	$1.52	45.26%
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BERY	Berry Global Group, Inc.	1.87%	$1.26	24.23%
NHC	National HealthCare Corporation	1.87%	$2.44	37.72%
PRDO	Perdoceo Education Corporation	1.87%	$0.54	23.03%
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TNET	TriNet Group, Inc.	1.86%	$1.06	38.35%
BTMD	biote Corp.	1.85%	$0.05	5.82%
WDFC	WD-40 Company	1.85%	$3.65	54.36%
AMTB	Amerant Bancorp Inc.	1.84%	$0.36	22.80%
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OTIS	Otis Worldwide Corporation	1.84%	$1.63	47.44%
WS	Worthington Steel, Inc.	1.84%	$0.65	26.98%
KBH	KB Home	1.83%	$1.05	13.68%
WRB	W. R. Berkley Corporation	1.83%	$1.27	26.69%
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Ningbo Water Meter (Group) Co., Ltd. (603700.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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