Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anji Foodstuff Co., Ltd (603696.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.08 - $34.83$11.14
Multi-Stage$3.77 - $4.11$3.94
Blended Fair Value$7.54
Current Price$11.58
Upside-34.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.07%46.15%0.080.050.130.270.320.440.520.070.080.00
YoY Growth--50.00%-60.00%-50.00%-16.67%-28.21%-15.27%673.30%-16.67%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.96%0.58%1.40%3.08%3.50%4.16%4.58%0.35%0.42%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.055.033.02
Cash Retained (M)10.6610.6610.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.05-5.03-3.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.615.637.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)221.70221.70221.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.08$11.14$34.83
Upside / Downside-47.46%-3.79%200.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.2442.8645.6448.6151.7755.1356.79
Payout Ratio73.51%76.81%80.11%83.40%86.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.5832.9236.5640.5444.8849.6252.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30.1930.4730.76
Year 2 PV (M)30.7531.3431.93
Year 3 PV (M)31.2732.1733.08
Year 4 PV (M)31.7532.9734.23
Year 5 PV (M)32.1933.7435.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)679.01711.81745.86
Equity Value (M)835.16872.50911.21
Shares Outstanding (M)221.70221.70221.70
Fair Value$3.77$3.94$4.11
Upside / Downside-67.47%-66.01%-64.51%

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