Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited (603363.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$138.55 - $272.86$255.71
Multi-Stage$41.34 - $45.30$43.28
Blended Fair Value$149.49
Current Price$4.80
Upside3,014.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.91%20.48%0.060.250.280.260.140.060.060.020.010.03
YoY Growth---76.94%-11.35%8.07%85.81%121.21%14.18%182.08%46.91%-58.45%260.80%
Dividend Yield--1.67%4.58%2.25%1.10%1.02%0.38%0.47%0.14%0.25%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,812.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,768.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)362.45226.53135.92
Cash Retained (M)1,768.141,768.141,768.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-362.45-226.53-135.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,405.691,541.611,632.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,320.901,320.901,320.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.061.171.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.061.171.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.101.201.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$138.55$255.71$272.86
Upside / Downside2,786.45%5,227.21%5,584.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,812.271,930.062,055.522,189.132,331.422,482.962,557.45
Payout Ratio2.43%19.95%37.46%54.97%72.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.12385.01770.011,203.451,689.982,234.672,365.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)358.67362.07365.47
Year 2 PV (M)668.26680.99693.84
Year 3 PV (M)972.971,000.901,029.36
Year 4 PV (M)1,272.841,321.791,372.14
Year 5 PV (M)1,567.941,643.671,722.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)49,758.7552,162.1154,657.46
Equity Value (M)54,599.4257,171.5359,840.56
Shares Outstanding (M)1,320.901,320.901,320.90
Fair Value$41.34$43.28$45.30
Upside / Downside761.15%801.72%843.81%

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