Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Longcheer Technology Co., Ltd. (603341.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$118.06 - $247.36$231.82
Multi-Stage$37.89 - $41.47$39.65
Blended Fair Value$135.73
Current Price$48.00
Upside182.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS68.09%0.00%0.610.081.060.280.090.050.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--634.90%-92.16%283.89%217.52%90.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.40%0.17%4.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)577.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)261.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)316.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)115.5172.1943.32
Cash Retained (M)316.28316.28316.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-115.51-72.19-43.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)200.77244.09272.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)464.34464.34464.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.530.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.530.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.001.091.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$118.06$231.82$247.36
Upside / Downside145.96%382.95%415.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)577.55615.09655.07697.65743.00791.30815.03
Payout Ratio45.24%54.19%63.14%72.10%81.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)261.27333.32413.63502.97602.18712.17753.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)310.36313.30316.24
Year 2 PV (M)358.61365.44372.34
Year 3 PV (M)406.03417.69429.57
Year 4 PV (M)452.64470.04487.95
Year 5 PV (M)498.43522.51547.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,568.6616,320.6417,101.39
Equity Value (M)17,594.7418,409.6219,254.99
Shares Outstanding (M)464.34464.34464.34
Fair Value$37.89$39.65$41.47
Upside / Downside-21.06%-17.40%-13.61%

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