Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Haikong Nanke Huatie Digital Technology Co., Ltd. Class A (603300.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.21 - $66.03$61.88
Multi-Stage$10.47 - $11.47$10.96
Blended Fair Value$36.42
Current Price$9.68
Upside276.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.72%17.41%0.070.040.100.040.040.040.040.030.030.01
YoY Growth--62.99%-55.29%145.15%2.44%3.92%-14.51%41.79%22.27%110.23%-16.00%
Dividend Yield--0.68%0.70%1.60%0.67%0.85%1.08%1.57%1.18%0.49%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)647.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)568.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)129.5480.9648.58
Cash Retained (M)568.48568.48568.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-129.54-80.96-48.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)438.94487.52519.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,950.771,950.771,950.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.21$61.88$66.03
Upside / Downside305.11%539.27%582.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)647.70689.81734.64782.39833.25887.41914.03
Payout Ratio12.23%27.79%43.34%58.89%74.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.23191.67318.39460.77620.32798.67845.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)178.76180.45182.15
Year 2 PV (M)276.94282.22287.54
Year 3 PV (M)373.80384.53395.47
Year 4 PV (M)469.35487.40505.96
Year 5 PV (M)563.59590.81619.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,559.5919,456.0220,386.77
Equity Value (M)20,422.0321,381.4322,376.96
Shares Outstanding (M)1,950.771,950.771,950.77
Fair Value$10.47$10.96$11.47
Upside / Downside8.15%13.23%18.50%

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