Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Tion Vanly Tech Co (603210.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.72 - $8.44$7.03
Multi-Stage$10.02 - $11.03$10.52
Blended Fair Value$8.77
Current Price$20.80
Upside-57.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)202.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)191.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.4125.2615.15
Cash Retained (M)191.93191.93191.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.41-25.26-15.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)151.52166.68176.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)276.84276.84276.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.600.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.600.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.640.68
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.72$7.03$8.44
Upside / Downside-72.48%-66.21%-59.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)202.05200.03198.03196.05194.09192.14197.91
Payout Ratio5.01%22.01%39.00%56.00%73.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.1244.0277.24109.79141.69172.93183.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)40.3540.7641.17
Year 2 PV (M)64.8966.2367.57
Year 3 PV (M)84.5587.1789.84
Year 4 PV (M)100.02104.16108.44
Year 5 PV (M)111.90117.72123.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,371.612,495.102,623.69
Equity Value (M)2,773.322,911.143,054.49
Shares Outstanding (M)276.84276.84276.84
Fair Value$10.02$10.52$11.03
Upside / Downside-51.84%-49.44%-46.96%

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