Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.,Ltd (603129.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - Recreational VehiclesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$408.14 - $2,336.48$765.88
Multi-Stage$239.16 - $261.46$250.11
Blended Fair Value$508.00
Current Price$268.25
Upside89.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.06%31.26%2.061.380.810.720.340.280.260.000.020.11
YoY Growth--49.42%69.94%12.52%110.80%22.20%6.67%5,209.60%-78.39%-78.85%-20.30%
Dividend Yield--1.10%1.12%0.64%0.71%0.27%0.91%1.11%0.02%0.12%0.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,805.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)589.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,216.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)361.16225.73135.44
Cash Retained (M)1,216.391,216.391,216.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-361.16-225.73-135.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)855.23990.671,080.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)153.71153.71153.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.566.457.03
LTM Dividend per Share3.833.833.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.566.457.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.4010.2810.87
WACC / Discount Rate7.93%7.93%7.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$408.14$765.88$2,336.48
Upside / Downside52.15%185.51%771.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,805.821,923.202,048.202,181.342,323.122,474.132,548.35
Payout Ratio32.64%44.11%55.58%67.06%78.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)589.42848.361,138.481,462.721,824.302,226.712,357.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.93%7.93%7.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)778.66786.04793.42
Year 2 PV (M)959.07977.34995.78
Year 3 PV (M)1,130.971,163.431,196.51
Year 4 PV (M)1,294.641,344.431,395.64
Year 5 PV (M)1,450.371,520.421,593.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,146.8832,651.2934,213.27
Equity Value (M)36,760.5838,442.9440,187.77
Shares Outstanding (M)153.71153.71153.71
Fair Value$239.16$250.11$261.46
Upside / Downside-10.84%-6.76%-2.53%

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