Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanxi Huaxiang Group Co., Ltd. (603112.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.98 - $214.44$200.96
Multi-Stage$30.84 - $33.74$32.26
Blended Fair Value$116.61
Current Price$16.70
Upside598.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS55.44%0.00%0.630.220.240.170.010.070.070.020.060.00
YoY Growth--191.23%-9.58%43.48%1,307.67%-82.94%-2.90%271.51%-66.57%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.05%1.81%2.21%1.10%0.10%0.62%0.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)535.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)231.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)303.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)107.0266.8940.13
Cash Retained (M)303.98303.98303.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-107.02-66.89-40.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)196.95237.09263.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)496.27496.27496.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.480.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.480.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.860.941.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$82.98$200.96$214.44
Upside / Downside396.86%1,103.36%1,184.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)535.11569.89606.94646.39688.40733.15755.14
Payout Ratio43.19%52.55%61.92%71.28%80.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)231.13299.51375.79460.73555.12659.83698.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)278.33280.97283.61
Year 2 PV (M)324.54330.72336.96
Year 3 PV (M)369.76380.38391.19
Year 4 PV (M)414.02429.94446.32
Year 5 PV (M)457.33479.42502.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,460.1714,110.3014,785.32
Equity Value (M)15,304.1516,011.7316,745.75
Shares Outstanding (M)496.27496.27496.27
Fair Value$30.84$32.26$33.74
Upside / Downside84.66%93.20%102.06%

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