Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Senci Electric Machinery Co.,Ltd. (603109.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.02 - $217.95$204.25
Multi-Stage$31.59 - $34.58$33.06
Blended Fair Value$118.65
Current Price$29.27
Upside305.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.30%13.11%0.390.350.340.210.160.240.140.090.100.08
YoY Growth--11.81%4.98%62.20%27.57%-32.79%73.95%58.66%-11.73%31.33%-34.36%
Dividend Yield--1.86%2.07%2.03%1.04%1.12%1.53%0.73%0.00%0.52%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)228.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)67.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)160.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.6128.5017.10
Cash Retained (M)160.07160.07160.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.61-28.50-17.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)114.46131.57142.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)208.08208.08208.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.630.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.630.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$89.02$204.25$217.95
Upside / Downside204.12%597.82%644.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)228.03242.86258.64275.45293.36312.43321.80
Payout Ratio29.80%41.84%53.88%65.92%77.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)67.96101.62139.36181.58228.70281.18297.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)94.4995.3896.28
Year 2 PV (M)120.48122.78125.10
Year 3 PV (M)145.97150.16154.43
Year 4 PV (M)170.94177.52184.28
Year 5 PV (M)195.42204.85214.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,845.306,127.636,420.77
Equity Value (M)6,572.606,878.327,195.50
Shares Outstanding (M)208.08208.08208.08
Fair Value$31.59$33.06$34.58
Upside / Downside7.92%12.94%18.15%

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