Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shanghai Beite Technology Co., Ltd. (603009.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.43 - $59.86$56.09
Multi-Stage$8.95 - $9.79$9.36
Blended Fair Value$32.73
Current Price$55.13
Upside-40.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.92%0.00%0.160.160.180.110.100.160.170.050.130.12
YoY Growth--1.85%-12.52%63.16%17.52%-38.73%-5.97%234.87%-61.19%3.15%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.37%1.00%2.73%1.81%1.78%2.37%2.07%0.43%0.65%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)103.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.6612.917.75
Cash Retained (M)42.6742.6742.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.66-12.91-7.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.0129.7534.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)343.21343.21343.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.43$56.09$59.86
Upside / Downside-53.87%1.75%8.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)103.30110.01117.16124.78132.89141.53145.77
Payout Ratio58.70%64.96%71.22%77.48%83.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.6371.4683.4496.67111.28127.37134.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)66.4767.1067.73
Year 2 PV (M)72.1973.5774.95
Year 3 PV (M)77.8080.0482.31
Year 4 PV (M)83.3086.5089.80
Year 5 PV (M)88.6992.9797.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,683.432,813.042,947.62
Equity Value (M)3,071.883,213.223,359.83
Shares Outstanding (M)343.21343.21343.21
Fair Value$8.95$9.36$9.79
Upside / Downside-83.76%-83.02%-82.24%

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