Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.,Ltd. (601677.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$231.23 - $272.42$255.30
Multi-Stage$137.72 - $151.15$144.31
Blended Fair Value$199.81
Current Price$14.41
Upside1,286.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.33%10.21%0.120.130.160.110.050.100.080.040.050.03
YoY Growth---3.68%-20.81%48.99%99.00%-47.93%34.29%88.94%-9.81%40.79%-30.31%
Dividend Yield--0.96%1.11%1.01%0.36%0.39%1.42%0.96%0.44%0.45%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,741.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)209.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,532.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)348.32217.70130.62
Cash Retained (M)1,532.371,532.371,532.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-348.32-217.70-130.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,184.051,314.671,401.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,271.391,271.391,271.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.931.031.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.931.031.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.101.201.27
WACC / Discount Rate4.05%4.05%4.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$231.23$255.30$272.42
Upside / Downside1,504.63%1,671.69%1,790.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,741.581,854.781,975.342,103.742,240.482,386.112,457.69
Payout Ratio12.01%27.61%43.21%58.80%74.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)209.21512.10853.491,237.101,666.972,147.502,273.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.05%4.05%4.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)487.56492.18496.80
Year 2 PV (M)773.64788.38803.25
Year 3 PV (M)1,067.621,098.261,129.49
Year 4 PV (M)1,369.641,422.321,476.49
Year 5 PV (M)1,679.891,761.031,845.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)169,716.48177,913.85186,424.95
Equity Value (M)175,094.84183,476.03192,176.27
Shares Outstanding (M)1,271.391,271.391,271.39
Fair Value$137.72$144.31$151.15
Upside / Downside855.72%901.47%948.96%

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