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Definitive Analysis

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Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. (601456.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.31 - $78.29$73.37
Multi-Stage$11.46 - $12.53$11.98
Blended Fair Value$42.67
Current Price$11.17
Upside282.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.42%20.95%0.090.170.060.060.000.020.000.060.170.02
YoY Growth---47.33%169.59%-0.77%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-65.00%624.72%75.00%
Dividend Yield--0.88%1.50%0.60%0.48%0.00%0.35%0.00%0.97%2.77%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,764.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,212.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)552.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)352.86220.54132.32
Cash Retained (M)552.07552.07552.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-352.86-220.54-132.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)199.21331.53419.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,481.864,481.864,481.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.31$73.37$78.29
Upside / Downside171.36%556.83%600.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,764.301,878.982,001.122,131.192,269.722,417.252,489.77
Payout Ratio68.71%72.97%77.23%81.48%85.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,212.241,371.041,545.371,736.571,946.102,175.522,303.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,274.131,286.201,298.28
Year 2 PV (M)1,334.611,360.031,385.70
Year 3 PV (M)1,393.721,433.731,474.50
Year 4 PV (M)1,451.481,507.301,564.71
Year 5 PV (M)1,507.901,580.731,656.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,388.9746,532.9848,759.04
Equity Value (M)51,350.8153,700.9756,138.57
Shares Outstanding (M)4,481.864,481.864,481.86
Fair Value$11.46$11.98$12.53
Upside / Downside2.57%7.27%12.14%

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