Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Central China Securities Co., Ltd. (601375.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.19 - $1.98$1.54
Multi-Stage$2.12 - $2.32$2.22
Blended Fair Value$1.88
Current Price$4.58
Upside-58.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.54%22.30%0.090.080.110.140.100.130.150.280.330.27
YoY Growth--11.29%-31.52%-20.96%39.55%-23.87%-9.09%-48.32%-14.87%24.62%2,247.81%
Dividend Yield--2.10%2.08%3.01%3.06%2.25%2.72%2.31%4.53%2.86%4.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)472.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)267.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)204.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)94.4359.0235.41
Cash Retained (M)204.31204.31204.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-94.43-59.02-35.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)109.88145.29168.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,637.294,637.294,637.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate0.03%1.03%2.03%
Fair Value$1.19$1.54$1.98
Upside / Downside-74.01%-66.38%-56.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)472.13476.99481.89486.85491.86496.92511.83
Payout Ratio56.73%63.38%70.04%76.69%83.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)267.82302.32337.50373.37409.94447.23473.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate0.03%1.03%2.03%
Year 1 PV (M)280.08282.88285.68
Year 2 PV (M)289.66295.48301.36
Year 3 PV (M)296.87305.86315.04
Year 4 PV (M)301.97314.23326.85
Year 5 PV (M)305.20320.76336.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,341.108,766.469,208.99
Equity Value (M)9,814.8810,285.6710,774.87
Shares Outstanding (M)4,637.294,637.294,637.29
Fair Value$2.12$2.22$2.32
Upside / Downside-53.79%-51.57%-49.27%

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