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Definitive Analysis

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Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. (601211.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$138.64 - $448.66$420.46
Multi-Stage$58.73 - $64.30$61.47
Blended Fair Value$240.97
Current Price$18.87
Upside1,176.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.23%18.12%1.040.991.050.880.740.560.740.700.790.38
YoY Growth--5.09%-5.69%19.47%18.76%32.38%-24.46%5.41%-11.46%109.71%92.11%
Dividend Yield--6.04%7.08%7.30%5.59%4.55%3.43%3.62%4.11%4.35%1.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25,575.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,274.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)20,300.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,115.063,196.911,918.15
Cash Retained (M)20,300.6820,300.6820,300.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,115.06-3,196.91-1,918.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,185.6217,103.7718,382.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,336.5011,336.5011,336.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.341.511.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.341.511.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.801.972.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$138.64$420.46$448.66
Upside / Downside634.71%2,128.22%2,277.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25,575.3027,237.6929,008.1430,893.6732,901.7635,040.3736,091.58
Payout Ratio20.62%34.50%48.37%62.25%76.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,274.619,396.7614,032.4919,231.1725,046.3931,536.3333,384.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8,709.868,792.428,874.97
Year 2 PV (M)12,055.9412,285.5712,517.37
Year 3 PV (M)15,314.5915,754.2116,202.17
Year 4 PV (M)18,487.4919,198.4719,929.75
Year 5 PV (M)21,576.3122,618.4623,700.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)589,686.17618,168.24647,740.37
Equity Value (M)665,830.36696,817.36728,965.14
Shares Outstanding (M)11,336.5011,336.5011,336.50
Fair Value$58.73$61.47$64.30
Upside / Downside211.25%225.74%240.77%

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