Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China XD Electric Co., Ltd (601179.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.80 - $46.90$43.95
Multi-Stage$27.32 - $29.98$28.62
Blended Fair Value$36.29
Current Price$6.76
Upside436.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.78%1.28%0.100.060.030.030.060.040.060.100.140.10
YoY Growth--79.47%68.60%4.64%-44.25%39.70%-27.43%-44.59%-27.48%37.15%15.09%
Dividend Yield--1.56%1.05%0.65%0.72%1.32%0.82%1.32%2.50%2.25%1.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,205.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)325.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)880.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)241.18150.7490.44
Cash Retained (M)880.62880.62880.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-241.18-150.74-90.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)639.44729.88790.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,113.925,113.925,113.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate2.10%2.10%2.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.80$43.95$46.90
Upside / Downside488.83%550.13%593.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,205.911,284.301,367.781,456.681,551.371,652.211,701.77
Payout Ratio26.97%39.58%52.18%64.79%77.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)325.29508.32713.77943.781,200.681,486.991,574.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.10%2.10%2.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)493.18497.85502.53
Year 2 PV (M)671.87684.67697.59
Year 3 PV (M)861.91886.66911.87
Year 4 PV (M)1,063.851,104.771,146.85
Year 5 PV (M)1,278.281,340.021,404.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)135,320.02141,856.03148,642.19
Equity Value (M)139,689.12146,370.00153,305.14
Shares Outstanding (M)5,113.925,113.925,113.92
Fair Value$27.32$28.62$29.98
Upside / Downside304.07%323.40%343.46%

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