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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Gas Corporation Ltd. (601139.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.50 - $80.67$75.60
Multi-Stage$12.58 - $13.77$13.16
Blended Fair Value$44.38
Current Price$6.62
Upside570.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.54%10.15%0.230.120.140.190.160.130.100.070.070.10
YoY Growth--99.18%-18.75%-23.81%16.67%20.00%30.00%42.82%6.66%-30.02%9.96%
Dividend Yield--3.45%1.55%2.06%2.61%2.11%1.80%1.64%1.27%0.96%1.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,318.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)552.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)766.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)263.79164.8798.92
Cash Retained (M)766.37766.37766.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-263.79-164.87-98.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)502.58601.50667.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,251.453,251.453,251.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$41.50$75.60$80.67
Upside / Downside526.83%1,042.03%1,118.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,318.941,404.671,495.981,593.221,696.771,807.061,861.28
Payout Ratio41.90%51.52%61.14%70.76%80.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)552.58723.64914.601,127.331,363.851,626.361,721.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)674.20680.59686.98
Year 2 PV (M)793.90809.02824.28
Year 3 PV (M)911.70937.87964.54
Year 4 PV (M)1,027.631,067.151,107.80
Year 5 PV (M)1,141.701,196.851,254.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,348.7438,104.3939,927.24
Equity Value (M)40,897.8642,795.8744,764.95
Shares Outstanding (M)3,251.453,251.453,251.45
Fair Value$12.58$13.16$13.77
Upside / Downside90.01%98.82%107.97%

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