Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The National Agricultural Development Company (6010.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.79 - $100.45$67.63
Multi-Stage$34.16 - $37.36$35.73
Blended Fair Value$51.68
Current Price$21.81
Upside136.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.65%4.55%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.130.11
YoY Growth--63.66%4.65%-28.51%28.14%5.72%5.69%1,454.81%-99.96%14.11%13,146.42%
Dividend Yield--0.01%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.00%1.12%1.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)777.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)777.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)155.4897.1858.31
Cash Retained (M)777.22777.22777.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-155.48-97.18-58.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)621.74680.04718.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)301.64301.64301.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.062.252.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.062.252.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.062.262.38
WACC / Discount Rate10.05%10.05%10.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$47.79$67.63$100.45
Upside / Downside119.13%210.08%360.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)777.40827.93881.75939.061,000.101,065.111,097.06
Payout Ratio0.02%18.02%36.01%54.01%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.18149.19317.55507.18720.12958.601,014.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.05%10.05%10.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)134.29135.56136.83
Year 2 PV (M)257.30262.20267.14
Year 3 PV (M)369.90380.52391.34
Year 4 PV (M)472.75490.93509.64
Year 5 PV (M)566.47593.83622.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,504.378,915.139,341.62
Equity Value (M)10,305.0710,778.1711,268.80
Shares Outstanding (M)301.64301.64301.64
Fair Value$34.16$35.73$37.36
Upside / Downside56.64%63.83%71.29%

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