Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Tongji Science&Technology Industrial Co.,Ltd (600846.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.48 - $5.29$4.33
Multi-Stage$26.32 - $29.27$27.76
Blended Fair Value$16.05
Current Price$13.77
Upside16.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.74%1.02%0.290.240.350.620.510.390.400.290.400.29
YoY Growth--22.40%-32.27%-43.28%21.66%30.06%-3.55%40.76%-27.79%37.48%10.33%
Dividend Yield--3.21%2.86%4.00%7.32%5.03%4.73%3.88%3.16%4.59%2.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)264.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)217.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.8233.0119.81
Cash Retained (M)217.50217.50217.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.82-33.01-19.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)164.67184.48197.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)622.73622.73622.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate1.25%1.25%1.25%
Growth Rate-7.74%-6.74%-5.74%
Fair Value$3.48$4.33$5.29
Upside / Downside-74.72%-68.56%-61.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)264.11246.31229.70214.21199.77186.31191.89
Payout Ratio17.65%32.12%46.59%61.06%75.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.6279.11107.02130.80150.89167.67177.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.25%1.25%1.25%
Growth Rate-7.74%-6.74%-5.74%
Year 1 PV (M)77.3078.1378.97
Year 2 PV (M)102.16104.39106.64
Year 3 PV (M)122.00126.01130.10
Year 4 PV (M)137.50143.56149.82
Year 5 PV (M)149.29157.56166.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,803.9816,679.2517,592.89
Equity Value (M)16,392.2217,288.9018,224.60
Shares Outstanding (M)622.73622.73622.73
Fair Value$26.32$27.76$29.27
Upside / Downside91.16%101.62%112.53%

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