Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Vcanbio Cell & Gene Engineering Corp., Ltd (600645.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.06 - $1.51$1.28
Multi-Stage$1.54 - $1.70$1.62
Blended Fair Value$1.45
Current Price$24.72
Upside-94.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-44.61%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.010.020.030.030.020.00
YoY Growth---35.55%-27.71%-21.03%-60.03%-64.55%-2.78%0.40%35.93%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.01%0.01%0.02%0.01%0.05%0.13%0.11%0.10%0.07%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)74.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)74.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.959.345.61
Cash Retained (M)74.6374.6374.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.95-9.34-5.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)59.6865.2969.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)462.98462.98462.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.06$1.28$1.51
Upside / Downside-95.71%-94.82%-93.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)74.7574.0073.2672.5371.8071.0873.22
Payout Ratio0.16%18.12%36.09%54.06%72.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.1213.4126.4439.2151.7263.9767.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)12.0812.2012.32
Year 2 PV (M)21.4421.8822.33
Year 3 PV (M)28.6429.5230.42
Year 4 PV (M)34.0235.4336.88
Year 5 PV (M)37.8939.8641.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)579.50609.68641.10
Equity Value (M)713.56748.57784.97
Shares Outstanding (M)462.98462.98462.98
Fair Value$1.54$1.62$1.70
Upside / Downside-93.77%-93.46%-93.14%

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