Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (600547.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.72 - $23.97$18.10
Multi-Stage$11.21 - $12.20$11.70
Blended Fair Value$14.90
Current Price$39.33
Upside-62.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.37%19.59%0.670.480.350.260.230.160.200.130.100.10
YoY Growth--40.65%36.59%35.18%13.29%43.45%-20.33%53.12%30.38%-3.34%-7.78%
Dividend Yield--2.49%1.61%1.58%1.20%1.07%0.65%1.24%0.88%0.55%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,841.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,933.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,908.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)968.38605.23363.14
Cash Retained (M)2,908.572,908.572,908.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-968.38-605.23-363.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,940.192,303.332,545.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,848.144,848.144,848.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.480.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.480.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate11.64%11.64%11.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.72$18.10$23.97
Upside / Downside-65.11%-53.98%-39.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,841.885,156.605,491.785,848.756,228.916,633.796,832.81
Payout Ratio39.93%49.94%59.96%69.97%79.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,933.312,575.373,292.734,092.464,982.255,970.416,320.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.64%11.64%11.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,285.152,306.812,328.47
Year 2 PV (M)2,592.422,641.792,691.64
Year 3 PV (M)2,858.962,941.033,024.65
Year 4 PV (M)3,088.323,207.093,329.25
Year 5 PV (M)3,283.803,442.413,607.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,224.2642,167.1144,184.31
Equity Value (M)54,332.9056,706.2359,165.41
Shares Outstanding (M)4,848.144,848.144,848.14
Fair Value$11.21$11.70$12.20
Upside / Downside-71.51%-70.26%-68.97%

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