Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Fangda Special Steel Technology Co., Ltd. (600507.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.03 - $2.81$2.42
Multi-Stage$4.58 - $5.06$4.82
Blended Fair Value$3.62
Current Price$5.42
Upside-33.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-36.86%-4.23%0.110.101.201.080.051.050.950.200.050.53
YoY Growth--8.87%-91.87%10.72%1,890.21%-94.86%10.50%374.77%305.94%-90.65%224.90%
Dividend Yield--2.54%2.29%21.34%12.52%0.61%19.46%9.58%1.82%1.02%15.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)847.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)796.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)169.54105.9663.58
Cash Retained (M)796.86796.86796.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-169.54-105.96-63.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)627.32690.89733.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,265.812,265.812,265.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.300.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.300.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate-6.23%-5.23%-4.23%
Fair Value$2.03$2.42$2.81
Upside / Downside-62.47%-55.27%-48.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)847.69803.40761.42721.64683.93648.20667.64
Payout Ratio6.00%22.80%39.60%56.40%73.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.84183.16301.51406.99500.63583.38617.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate-6.23%-5.23%-4.23%
Year 1 PV (M)168.47170.26172.06
Year 2 PV (M)255.09260.56266.08
Year 3 PV (M)316.72326.96337.42
Year 4 PV (M)358.34373.87389.90
Year 5 PV (M)384.08405.00426.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,892.899,377.279,882.54
Equity Value (M)10,375.5810,913.9211,474.82
Shares Outstanding (M)2,265.812,265.812,265.81
Fair Value$4.58$4.82$5.06
Upside / Downside-15.51%-11.13%-6.56%

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